Cosmology and Fundamental physics

arXiv:2507.14136v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We present new constraints on the halo masses and matter density profiles of DESI galaxy groups by cross-correlating samples of Luminous Red Galaxies (LRGs) and Bright Galaxy Survey (BGS) galaxies with the publicly available CMB lensing convergence map from ACT DR6. This provides an independent, lensing-based calibration of halo masses, complementary to methods relying on clustering or dynamics. We derive constraints on the mean halo mass for three DESI-selected samples, finding $\log(M_{\rm halo}/(M_\odot/h)) \approx 13.18$, 13.03 and 13.02 for the Main LRG, Extended LRG, and BGS samples, respectively. Using a halo model approach, we also compare the projected galaxy-matter density profiles with previously reported gas profiles inferred from measurements of the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (kSZ) effect. This work addresses one of the key uncertainties in interpreting kSZ signals -- the unknown host halo mass distribution -- by providing an independent and consistent mass calibration. The agreement between the gas and total mass profiles at large aperture suggests that sufficiently far from the group center (2--3 virial radii), we recover all the baryons, offering a resolution to the 'missing baryon' problem. We further study the cumulative gas fractions for all galaxies as well as for the most massive galaxy groups in the sample ($\log(M_{\rm halo}/(M_\odot/h)) \approx 13.5$), finding values that are physically sensible and in agreement with previous findings using kSZ and X-ray data: compared to the TNG300 simulation, the observed gas fractions are systematically lower at fixed radius by $\gtrsim$4$\sigma$, providing compelling, independent evidence for stronger baryonic feedback in the real Universe. These findings highlight the power of combining CMB lensing with galaxy surveys to probe the interplay between baryons and dark matter in group-sized halos.

arXiv:2507.13495v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) offers a principled and flexible framework for conducting Bayesian inference in any situation where forward simulations are feasible. However, validating the accuracy and reliability of the inferred posteriors remains a persistent challenge. In this work, we point out a simple diagnostic approach rooted in ensemble learning methods to assess the internal consistency of SBI outputs that does not require access to the true posterior. By training multiple neural estimators under identical conditions and evaluating their pairwise Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergences, we define a consistency criterion that quantifies agreement across the ensemble. We highlight two core use cases for this framework: a) for generating a robust estimate of the systematic uncertainty in parameter reconstruction associated with the training procedure, and b) for detecting possible model misspecification when using trained estimators on real data. We also demonstrate the relationship between significant KL divergences and issues such as insufficient convergence due to, e.g., too low a simulation budget, or intrinsic variance in the training process. Overall, this ensemble-based diagnostic framework provides a lightweight, scalable, and model-agnostic tool for enhancing the trustworthiness of SBI in scientific applications.

arXiv:2507.09228v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Constraints on the cosmological parameters of Torsion Condensation (TorC) are investigated using Planck 2018 Cosmic Microwave Background data. TorC is a case of Poincar\'e gauge theory -- a formulation of gravity motivated by the gauge field theories underlying fundamental forces in the standard model of particle physics. Unlike general relativity, TorC incorporates intrinsic torsion degrees of freedom while maintaining second-order field equations. At specific parameter values, it reduces to the $\Lambda$CDM model, providing a natural extension to standard cosmology. The base model of TorC introduces two parameters beyond those in $\Lambda$CDM: the initial value of the torsion scalar field and its time derivative -- one can absorb the latter by allowing the dark energy density to float. To constrain these parameters, `PolyChord` nested sampling algorithm is employed, interfaced via `Cobaya` with a modified version of `CAMB`. Our results indicate that TorC allows for a larger inferred Hubble constant, offering a potential resolution to the Hubble tension. Tension analysis using the $R$-statistic shows that TorC alleviates the statistical tension between the Planck 2018 and SH0Es 2020 datasets, though this improvement is not sufficient to decisively favour TorC over $\Lambda$CDM in a Bayesian model comparison. This study highlights TorC as a compelling theory of gravity, demonstrating its potential to address cosmological tensions and motivating further investigations of extended theories of gravity within a cosmological context. As current and upcoming surveys -- including Euclid, Roman Space Telescope, Vera C. Rubin Observatory, LISA, and Simons Observatory -- deliver data on gravity across all scales, they will offer critical tests of gravity models like TorC, making the present a pivotal moment for exploring extended theories of gravity.

arXiv:2507.07346v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: These notes are very much work-in-progress and simply intended to showcase, in various degrees of details (and rigour), some of the cosmology calculations that class_sz can do. We describe the class_sz code in C, Python and Jax. Based on the Boltzmann code class, it can compute a wide range of observables relevant to current and forthcoming CMB and Large Scale Structure surveys. This includes galaxy shear and clustering, CMB lensing, thermal and kinetic Sunyaev and Zeldovich observables, Cosmic Infrared Background, cross-correlations and three-point statistics. Calculations can be done either within the halo model or the linear bias model. For standard $\Lambda$CDM cosmology and extensions, class_sz uses high-accuracy cosmopower emulators of the CMB and matter power spectrum to accelerate calculations. With this, along with efficient numerical integration routines, most class_sz output can be obtained in less than 500 ms (CMB $C_\ell$'s or matter $P(k)$ take $\mathcal{O}(1\mathrm{ms})$), allowing for fast or ultra-fast parameter inference analyses. Parts of the calculations are "jaxified", so the software can be integrated into differentiable pipelines.

arXiv:2507.07346v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: These notes are very much work-in-progress and simply intended to showcase, in various degrees of details (and rigour), some of the cosmology calculations that class_sz can do. We describe the class_sz code in C, Python and Jax. Based on the Boltzmann code class, it can compute a wide range of observables relevant to current and forthcoming CMB and Large Scale Structure surveys. This includes galaxy shear and clustering, CMB lensing, thermal and kinetic Sunyaev and Zeldovich observables, Cosmic Infrared Background, cross-correlations and three-point statistics. Calculations can be done either within the halo model or the linear bias model. For standard $\Lambda$CDM cosmology and extensions, class_sz uses high-accuracy cosmopower emulators of the CMB and matter power spectrum to accelerate calculations. With this, along with efficient numerical integration routines, most class_sz output can be obtained in less than 500 ms (CMB $C_\ell$'s or matter $P(k)$ take $\mathcal{O}(1\mathrm{ms})$), allowing for fast or ultra-fast parameter inference analyses. Parts of the calculations are "jaxified", so the software can be integrated into differentiable pipelines.

arXiv:2401.10328v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The spectra of high-redshift ($z\gtrsim 6$) quasars contain valuable information on the progression of the Epoch of Reionization (EoR). At redshifts $z<6$, the observed Lyman-series forest shows that the intergalactic medium (IGM) is nearly ionized, while at $z>7$ the observed quasar damping wings indicate high neutral gas fractions. However, there remains a gap in neutral gas fraction constraints at $6\lesssim z \lesssim 7$ where the Lyman series forest becomes saturated but damping wings have yet to fully emerge. In this work, we use a sample of 18 quasar spectra at redshifts $6.0

arXiv:2506.21677v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We present Galaxy-Galaxy Lensing measurements obtained by cross-correlating spectroscopically observed galaxies from the first data release of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) with source galaxies from the Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Survey, the Kilo-Degree Survey, the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, and the Dark Energy Survey. Specifically, we measure the excess surface mass density $\Delta\Sigma$ and tangential shear $\gamma_\mathrm{t}$ for the Bright Galaxy Sample and Luminous Red Galaxies measured within the first year of observations with DESI. To ensure robustness, we test the measurements for systematic biases, finding no significant trends related to the properties of the \acrshort{desi} lens galaxies. We identify a significant trend with the average redshift of source galaxies, however, this trend vanishes once we apply shifts to the Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Survey redshift distributions that are also favored by their fiducial cosmology analysis. Additionally, we compare the observed scatter in the measurements with the theoretical covariance and find excess scatter, driven primarily by small-scale measurements of $r\leq 1 \, \mathrm{Mpc}/h$; measurements on larger scales are consistent at the $2\,\sigma$ level. We further present the projected clustering measurements $w_p$ of the galaxy samples in the the first data release of DESI. These measurements, which will be made publicly available, serve as a foundation for forthcoming cosmological analyses.

arXiv:2506.22416v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We present a measurement of the amplitude of matter fluctuations over the redshift range 0.8 <= z <= 3.5 from the cross correlation of over 1.2 million spectroscopic quasars selected by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) across 7,200 deg$^2$ (approx 170 quasars/deg$^2$) and Planck PR4 (NPIPE) cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing maps. We perform a tomographic measurement in three bins centered at effective redshifts z=1.44, 2.27 and 2.75, which have ample overlap with the CMB lensing kernel. From a joint fit using the angular clustering of all three redshift bins (auto and cross-spectra), and including an $\Omega_m$ prior from DESI DR1 baryon acoustic oscillations to break the $\Omega_m-\sigma_8$ degeneracy, we constrain the amplitude of matter fluctuations in the matter-dominated regime to be $\sigma_8=0.929^{+0.059}_{-0.074}$ and $S_8\equiv \sigma_8(\Omega_m/0.3)^{0.5} = 0.922^{+0.059}_{-0.073}$. We provide a growth of structure measurement with the largest spectroscopic quasar sample to date at high redshift, which is 1.5$\sigma$ higher than predictions from $\Lambda$CDM fits to measurements of the primary CMB from Planck PR4. The cross-correlation between PR4 lensing maps and DESI DR1 quasars is detected with a signal-to-noise ratio of 21.7 and the quasar auto-correlation at 27.2 for the joint analysis of all redshift bins. We combine our measurement with the CMB lensing auto-spectrum from the ground-based Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT DR6) and Planck PR4 to perform a sound-horizon-free measurement of the Hubble constant, yielding $H_0=69.1^{+2.2}_{-2.6}\,\mathrm{km}\,\mathrm{s}^{-1}\mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$ through its sensitivity to the matter-radiation equality scale.

arXiv:2506.20667v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Noise maps from CMB experiments are generally statistically anisotropic, due to scanning strategies, atmospheric conditions, or instrumental effects. Any mis-modeling of this complex noise can bias the reconstruction of the lensing potential and the measurement of the lensing power spectrum from the observed CMB maps. We introduce a new CMB lensing estimator based on the maximum a posteriori (MAP) reconstruction that is minimally sensitive to these instrumental noise biases. By modifying the likelihood to rely exclusively on correlations between CMB map splits with independent noise realizations, we minimize auto-correlations that contribute to biases. In the regime of many independent splits, this maximum closely approximates the optimal MAP reconstruction of the lensing potential. In simulations, we demonstrate that this method is able to determine lensing observables that are immune to any noise mis-modeling with a negligible cost in signal-to-noise ratio. Our estimator enables unbiased and nearly optimal lensing reconstruction for next-generation CMB surveys.

arXiv:2506.19001v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Some galaxies such as the Milky Way and Andromeda display coherently rotating satellite planes, posing tensions with cosmological simulations. NGC 2750 has emerged as an additional candidate system hosting a co-rotating group of galaxies. We aim to assess the presence of a coherent satellite plane around NGC 2750 by identifying new candidate dwarf galaxies and low surface brightness features. We conducted deep, wide-field photometric observations of NGC 2750 using the Large Binocular Telescope in the g- and r-bands. Standard data reduction techniques were applied to enhance the detection of low-surface-brightness features down to about 31 mag/arcsec^2 in r. Our observations led to the discovery of six new candidate dwarf galaxies, including one with properties consistent with an ultra-diffuse galaxy. We also identified tidal features around NGC 2750, indicating past interactions with nearby satellites. The spatial distribution of satellites suggests a moderate flattening, further supported by the newly identified candidates. Follow-up spectroscopic measurements will be critical in confirming or challenging the strong kinematic coherence observed previously. The luminosity function of NGC 2750 reveals an excess of bright satellites compared to similar systems, adding to the growing tension between observed satellite populations and cosmological simulations.

arXiv:2503.14454v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We use new cosmic microwave background (CMB) primary temperature and polarization anisotropy measurements from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) Data Release 6 (DR6) to test foundational assumptions of the standard cosmological model and set constraints on extensions to it. We derive constraints from the ACT DR6 power spectra alone, as well as in combination with legacy data from Planck. To break geometric degeneracies, we include ACT and Planck CMB lensing data and baryon acoustic oscillation data from DESI Year-1, and further add supernovae measurements from Pantheon+ for models that affect the late-time expansion history. We verify the near-scale-invariance (running of the spectral index $d n_s/d\ln k = 0.0062 \pm 0.0052$) and adiabaticity of the primordial perturbations. Neutrino properties are consistent with Standard Model predictions: we find no evidence for new light, relativistic species that are free-streaming ($N_{\rm eff} = 2.86 \pm 0.13$, which combined with external BBN data becomes $N_{\rm eff} = 2.89 \pm 0.11$), for non-zero neutrino masses ($\sum m_\nu < 0.082$ eV at 95% CL), or for neutrino self-interactions. We also find no evidence for self-interacting dark radiation ($N_{\rm idr} < 0.134$), early-universe variation of fundamental constants, early dark energy, primordial magnetic fields, or modified recombination. Our data are consistent with standard BBN, the FIRAS-inferred CMB temperature, a dark matter component that is collisionless and with only a small fraction allowed as axion-like particles, a cosmological constant, and the late-time growth rate predicted by general relativity. We find no statistically significant preference for a departure from the baseline $\Lambda$CDM model. In general, models introduced to increase the Hubble constant or to decrease the amplitude of density fluctuations inferred from the primary CMB are not favored by our data.

arXiv:2506.18974v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The Euclid mission and other next-generation large-scale structure surveys will enable high-precision measurements of the cosmic matter distribution. Understanding the impact of baryonic processes such as star formation and AGN feedback on matter clustering is crucial to ensure precise and unbiased cosmological inference. Most theoretical models of baryonic effects to date focus on two-point statistics, neglecting higher-order contributions. This work develops a fast and accurate emulator for baryonic effects on the matter bispectrum, a key non-Gaussian statistic in the nonlinear regime. We employ high-resolution $N$-body simulations from the BACCO suite and apply a combination of cutting-edge techniques such as cosmology scaling and baryonification to efficiently span a large cosmological and astrophysical parameter space. A deep neural network is trained to emulate baryonic effects on the matter bispectrum measured in simulations, capturing modifications across various scales and redshifts relevant to Euclid. We validate the emulator accuracy and robustness using an analysis of \Euclid mock data, employing predictions from the state-of-the-art FLAMINGO hydrodynamical simulations. The emulator reproduces baryonic suppression in the bispectrum to better than 2$\%$ for the $68\%$ percentile across most triangle configurations for $k \in [0.01, 20]\,h^{-1}\mathrm{Mpc}$ and ensures consistency between cosmological posteriors inferred from second- and third-order weak lensing statistics.

arXiv:2502.00946v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We present a transfer function-based method to estimate angular power spectra from filtered maps for cosmic microwave background (CMB) surveys. This is especially relevant for experiments targeting the faint primordial gravitational wave signatures in CMB polarisation at large scales, such as the Simons Observatory (SO) small aperture telescopes. While timestreams can be filtered to mitigate the contamination from low-frequency noise, usual methods that calculate the mode coupling at individual multipoles can be challenging for experiments covering large sky areas or reaching few-arcminute resolution. The method we present here, although approximate, is more practical and faster for larger data volumes. We validate it through the use of simulated observations approximating the first year of SO data, going from half-wave plate-modulated timestreams to maps, and using simulations to estimate the mixing of polarisation modes induced by an example of time-domain filtering. We show its performance through an example null test and with an end-to-end pipeline that performs inference on cosmological parameters, including the tensor-to-scalar ratio $r$. The performance demonstration uses simulated observations at multiple frequency bands. We find that the method can recover unbiased parameters for our simulated noise levels.

arXiv:2410.06268v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Gravitational redshift and Doppler effects give rise to an antisymmetric component of the galaxy correlation function when cross-correlating two galaxy populations or two different tracers. In this paper, we assess the detectability of these effects in the Euclid spectroscopic galaxy survey. We model the impact of gravitational redshift on the observed redshift of galaxies in the Flagship mock catalogue using a Navarro-Frenk-White profile for the host haloes. We isolate these relativistic effects, largely subdominant in the standard analysis, by splitting the galaxy catalogue into two populations of faint and bright objects and estimating the dipole of their cross-correlation in four redshift bins. In the simulated catalogue, we detect the dipole signal on scales below $30\,h^{-1}{\rm Mpc}$, with detection significances of $4\,\sigma$ and $3\,\sigma$ in the two lowest redshift bins, respectively. At higher redshifts, the detection significance drops below $2\,\sigma$. Overall, we estimate the total detection significance in the Euclid spectroscopic sample to be approximately $6\,\sigma$. We find that on small scales, the major contribution to the signal comes from the nonlinear gravitational potential. Our study on the Flagship mock catalogue shows that this observable can be detected in Euclid Data Release 2 and beyond.

arXiv:2506.07432v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We present a joint analysis of weak gravitational lensing (shear) data obtained from the first three years of observations by the Dark Energy Survey and thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (tSZ) effect measurements from a combination of Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) and Planck data. A combined analysis of shear (which traces the projected mass) with the tSZ effect (which traces the projected gas pressure) can jointly probe both the distribution of matter and the thermodynamic state of the gas, accounting for the correlated effects of baryonic feedback on both observables. We detect the shear$~\times~$tSZ cross-correlation at a 21$\sigma$ significance, the highest to date, after minimizing the bias from cosmic infrared background leakage in the tSZ map. By jointly modeling the small-scale shear auto-correlation and the shear$~\times~$tSZ cross-correlation, we obtain $S_8 = 0.811^{+0.015}_{-0.012}$ and $\Omega_{\rm m} = 0.263^{+0.023}_{-0.030}$, results consistent with primary CMB analyses from Planck and P-ACT. We find evidence for reduced thermal gas pressure in dark matter halos with masses $M < 10^{14} \, M_{\odot}/h$, supporting predictions of enhanced feedback from active galactic nuclei on gas thermodynamics. A comparison of the inferred matter power suppression reveals a $2-4\sigma$ tension with hydrodynamical simulations that implement mild baryonic feedback, as our constraints prefer a stronger suppression. Finally, we investigate biases from cosmic infrared background leakage in the tSZ-shear cross-correlation measurements, employing mitigation techniques to ensure a robust inference. Our code is publicly available on GitHub.

arXiv:2506.06475v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A significant number of Lyman-break galaxies (LBGs) with redshifts 3 < z < 5 are expected to be observed by the upcoming Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). This will enable us to probe the universe at higher redshifts than is currently possible with cosmological galaxy clustering and weak lensing surveys. However, accurate inference of cosmological parameters requires precise knowledge of the redshift distributions of selected galaxies, where the number of faint objects expected from LSST alone will make spectroscopic based methods of determining these distributions extremely challenging. To overcome this difficulty, it may be possible to leverage the information in the large volume of photometric data alone to precisely infer these distributions. This could be facilitated using forward models, where in this paper we use stellar population synthesis (SPS) to estimate uncertainties on LBG redshift distributions for a 10 year LSST (LSSTY10) survey. We characterise some of the modelling uncertainties inherent to SPS by introducing a flexible parameterisation of the galaxy population prior, informed by observations of the galaxy stellar mass function (GSMF) and cosmic star formation density (CSFRD). These uncertainties are subsequently marginalised over and propagated to cosmological constraints in a Fisher forecast. Assuming a known dust attenuation model for LBGs, we forecast constraints on the sigma8 parameter comparable to Planck cosmic microwave background (CMB) constraints.

arXiv:2506.05471v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Type Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia) are crucial tools to measure the accelerating expansion of the universe, comprising thousands of SNe across multiple telescopes. Accurate measurements of cosmological parameters with SNe Ia require a robust understanding and cross-calibration of the telescopes and filters. A previous cross-calibration effort, 'Fragilistic', provided 25 photometric systems, but offered no public code or ability to add new surveys. We provide an open-source cross-calibration solution, available at https://github.com/bap37/Dovekie/ . Using the Pan-STARRs (PS1) and Gaia all-sky telescopes, we characterise the measured filters from 11 photometric systems, including CfA, PS1, Foundation, DES, CSP, SDSS, and SNLS, using published observations of field stars. For the first time, we derive uncertainties on effective filter transmissions and modify filters to match the data. With the addition of direct observations of DA white dwarfs (Boyd et al. 2025), we simultaneously cross-calibrate our zeropoints across photometric systems and propagate to cosmology. With improved uncertainties from DA WDs, we find improvements to the calibration systematic uncertainty of x1.5 for the Pantheon+ (Brout et al. 2022) sample with a new systematic photometric uncertainty = 0.016 for FlatwCDM, and modest improvements to that of the DES5YR analysis. We find good agreement with previous calibration, and show that even these small calibration changes can be amplified by up to a factor of x6 in the inferred SN Ia distances, driven by calibration sensitivity in the colour-luminosity relations and SALT training. Initial results indicate that these changes cause dmu/dz = 0.025 and change the recovered value of Omega_M in LCDM by ~0.01. These may have a potentially larger impact in w0/wa space and inferences about evolving dark energy. We pursue this calculation in an ongoing full re-analysis of DES.

arXiv:2506.04309v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are standardisable candles: their peak magnitudes can be corrected for correlations between light curve properties and their luminosities to precisely estimate distances. Understanding SN Ia standardisation across wavelength improves methods for correcting SN Ia magnitudes. Using 150 SNe Ia from the Foundation Supernova Survey and Young Supernova Experiment, we present the first study focusing on SN Ia standardisation properties in the z band. Straddling the optical and near-infrared, SN Ia light in the z band is less sensitive to dust extinction and can be collected alongside the optical on CCDs. Pre-standardisation, SNe Ia exhibit less residual scatter in z-band peak magnitudes than in the g and r bands. SNe Ia peak z-band magnitudes still exhibit a significant dependence on light-curve shape. Post-standardisation, the z-band Hubble diagram has a total scatter of RMS = 0.195 mag. We infer a z-band mass step of $\gamma_{z} = -0.105 \pm 0.031$ mag, which is consistent within 1$\sigma$ of that estimated from gri data, assuming Rv = 2.61. When assuming different Rv values for high and low mass host galaxies, the z-band and optical mass steps remain consistent within 1$\sigma$. Based on current statistical precision, these results suggest dust reddening cannot fully explain the mass step. SNe Ia in the z band exhibit complementary standardisability properties to the optical that can improve distance estimates. Understanding these properties is important for the upcoming Vera Rubin Observatory and Nancy G. Roman Space Telescope, which will probe the rest-frame z band to redshifts 0.1 and 1.8.

arXiv:2505.22567v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The recent discovery of a large number of massive black holes within the first two billion years after the Big Bang, as well as their peculiar properties, have been largely unexpected based on the extrapolation of the properties of luminous quasars. These findings have prompted the development of several theoretical models for the early formation and growth of black holes, which are, however, difficult to differentiate. We report the metallicity measurement around a gravitationally lensed massive black hole at redshift 7.04, hosted in a galaxy with very low dynamical mass. The weakness of the [OIII]5007 emission line relative to the narrow Hbeta emission indicates an extremely low chemical enrichment, less than 0.01 solar. We argue that such properties cannot be uncommon among accreting black holes around this early cosmic epoch. Explaining such a low chemical enrichment in a system that has developed a massive black hole is challenging for most theories. Models assuming heavy black hole seeds (such as Direct Collapse Black Holes) or super-Eddington accretion scenarios struggle to explain the observations, although they can potentially reproduce the observed properties in rare cases. Models invoking "primordial black holes" (i.e. putative black holes formed shortly after the Big Bang) may potentially explain the low chemical enrichment associated with this black hole.

arXiv:2502.03085v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The shape of the Ly-$\alpha$ transmission in the near zone of the redshift $z=5.9896$ quasar ULAS J0148$+$0600 (hereafter J0148) is consistent with a damping wing arising from an extended neutral hydrogen island in the diffuse intergalactic medium (IGM). Here we use simulations of late-ending reionisation from Sherwood-Relics to assess the expected incidence of quasars with Ly-$\alpha$ and Ly-$\beta$ absorption similar to the observed J0148 spectrum. We find a late end to reionisation at $z=5.3$ is a necessary requirement for reproducing a Ly-$\alpha$ damping wing consistent with J0148. This occurs in $\sim3$ per cent of our simulated spectra for an IGM neutral fraction $\langle x_{\rm HI}\rangle=0.14$ at $z=6$. However, using standard assumptions for the ionising photon output of J0148, the a priori probability of drawing a simulated quasar spectrum with a Ly-$\alpha$ damping wing profile and Ly-$\alpha$ near zone size that simultaneously match J0148 is very low, $p<10^{-3}$. We speculate this is because the ionising emission from J0148 is variable on timescales $t<10^{5}\rm\,yr$, or alternatively that the Ly-$\alpha$ transmission in the J0148 near zone is impacted by the transverse proximity effect from nearby star-forming galaxies or undetected quasars. We also predict the IGM temperature should be $T\sim 4\times 10^{4}\rm\,K$ within a few proper Mpc of the Ly-$\alpha$ near zone edge due to recent HI and HeII photo-heating. Evidence for enhanced thermal broadening in the Ly-$\alpha$ absorption near the damping wing edge would provide further evidence that the final stages of reionisation are occurring at $z<6$.