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What can we learn about a dynamical system from data? – Impossibility results and classifications using adversarial dynamical systems

Machine learning has emerged as a powerful tool for studying complex nonlinear systems using trajectory data, with applications spanning climate science, epidemiology, and beyond. A fundamental question arises: When can we reliably learn system behaviours from data, and when is it fundamentally impossible? In this talk, I will introduce the concept of adversarial dynamical systems—systems specifically designed to prevent learning algorithms from converging. This approach enables the development of a rigorous classification framework that identifies the intrinsic difficulty of problems and establishes what is fundamentally unattainable. These results reveal impossibility theorems for data-driven system learning, showing that such adversarial systems arise with high probability and that reliable learning can remain out of reach regardless of the algorithm, data quality, or quantity. To illustrate, I will focus on Koopman operators, which reformulate nonlinear dynamics as infinite-dimensional spectral problems (search “Koopmania” for more!). By understanding these barriers, we can design methods that provably converge, achieving breakthroughs such as state-of-the-art predictions of Arctic sea ice dynamics. I would love to hear from those present whether these techniques could be useful in astrophysics too!

• Speaker: Matthew Colbrook (DAMTP)
• Monday 16 June 2025, 16:00-17:00
• Venue: Martin Ryle Seminar Room, KICC.
• Series: Astro Data Science Discussion Group; organiser: Dr Priscilla Canizares.

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arXiv:2502.00852v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In this study, we train score-based diffusion models to super-resolve gigaparsec-scale cosmological simulations of the 21-cm signal. We examine the impact of network and training dataset size on model performance, demonstrating that a single simulation is sufficient for a model to learn the super-resolution task regardless of the initial conditions. Our best-performing model achieves pixelwise $\mathrm{RMSE}\sim0.57\ \mathrm{mK}$ and dimensionless power spectrum residuals ranging from $10^{-2}-10^{-1}\ \mathrm{mK^2}$ for $128^3$, $256^3$ and $512^3$ voxel simulation volumes at redshift $10$. The super-resolution network ultimately allows us to utilize all spatial scales covered by the SKA1-Low instrument, and could in future be employed to help constrain the astrophysics of the early Universe.

arXiv:2502.00576v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Measuring the properties of planets younger than about 50 Myr helps to test different planetary formation and evolution models. NASA's Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) has observed nearly the entire sky, including a wide range of star-forming regions and young stellar clusters, expanding our census of the newborn planet population. In this work, we present the discovery of the TIC 88785435 planetary system located in the Upper-Centaurus Lupus (UCL) region of the Scorpius-Centaurus OB association (Sco-Cen) and a preliminary survey of the planet population within Sco-Cen. TIC 88785435 is a pre-main sequence, K7V dwarf ($M_\star = 0.72M_\odot$, $R_\star = 0.91R_\odot$, $T_\mathrm{eff}$ = 3998K, V = 11.7 mag) located within the bounds of UCL. We investigate the distribution of rotation periods measured from the TESS long-cadence data and the Halpha and Li abundances from the spectra of TIC 88785435. TESS long-candence data reveal that TIC 88785435 hosts a transiting super-Neptune ($R_b = 5.03R_\oplus$, P = 10.51 days), TIC 88785435 b. Ground-based follow-up validates the planetary nature of TIC 88785435 b. Using the TESS data, we perform a preliminary survey to investigate how TIC 88785435 b compares to the population of newly born planets located within Sco-Cen.

arXiv:2407.08026v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Highly-multiplexed, robotic, fiber-fed spectroscopic surveys are observing tens of millions of stars and galaxies. For many systems, accurate positioning relies on imaging the fibers in the focal plane and feeding that information back to the robotic positioners to correct their positions. Inhomogeneities and turbulence in the air between the focal plane and the imaging camera can affect the measured positions of fibers, limiting the accuracy with which fibers can be placed on targets. For the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument, we dramatically reduced the effect of turbulence on measurements of positioner locations in the focal plane by taking advantage of stationary positioners and the correlation function of the turbulence. We were able to reduce positioning errors from 7.3 microns to 3.5 microns, speeding the survey by 1.6% under typical conditions.

Title to be confirmed

Abstract not available

• Speaker: Piyush Sharda (Leiden)
• Friday 04 April 2025, 11:30-12:30
• Venue: Ryle Seminar Room, KICC + online.
• Series: Galaxies Discussion Group; organiser: Sandro Tacchella.

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Unveiling the Intrinsic Mass Step of Type Ia Supernovae

It has long been established that the properties of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) depend on their local environment, even after typical standardisation methods. This is typically referred to as the mass step, where SNe Ia in high-mass galaxies are on average brighter than their low-mass counterparts post-standardisation, although trends have been established with other environmental properties including colour, specific star formation rate and distance from the centre of the galaxy. There has been ongoing debate in the field about whether these differences are intrinsic or just the result of extrinsic effects i.e. dust. I will present recent analysis of the environmental dependence of SNe Ia which have found an intrinsic contribution to the mass step, with particularly strong differences around the i-band secondary maximum. These results demonstrate that there are intrinsic differences between SNe Ia in different environments and raise an interesting question about what is driving these results; understanding this finding can help reveal the underlying physical cause of the environmental dependence of SNe Ia.

• Speaker: Matthew Grayling / IoA
• Wednesday 05 February 2025, 13:40-14:05
• Venue: The Hoyle Lecture Theatre + Zoom .
• Series: Institute of Astronomy Seminars; organiser: Xander Byrne.

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arXiv:2501.19384v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We investigate the dust mass build-up and star formation efficiency of two galaxies at $z>12$, GHZ2 and GS-z14-0, by combining ALMA and JWST observations with an analytical model that assumes dust at thermal equilibrium. We obtained $3\sigma$ constraints on dust mass of $\log M_{\rm dust}/M_{\odot}<5.0$ and $<5.3$, respectively. These constraints are in tension with a high dust condensation efficiency in stellar ejecta but are consistent with models with a short metal accretion timescale at $z>12$. Given the young stellar ages of these galaxies ($t_{\rm age}\sim10\,{\rm Myrs}$), dust grain growth via accretion may still be ineffective at this stage, though it likely works efficiently to produce significant dust in galaxies at $z\sim7$. The star formation efficiencies, defined as the SFR divided by molecular gas mass, reach $\sim10\,{\rm Gyr}^{-1}$ in a 10\,Myr timescale, aligning with the expected redshift evolution of `starburst' galaxies with efficiencies that are $\sim0.5$--$1\,{\rm dex}$ higher than those in main-sequence galaxies. This starburst phase seems to be common in UV-bright galaxies at $z>12$ and is likely associated with the unique conditions of the early phases of galaxy formation, such as bursty star formation and/or negligible feedback from super-Eddington accretion. Direct observations of molecular gas tracers like [C\,{\sc ii}] will be crucial to further understanding the nature of bright galaxies at $z>12$.

Title to be confirmed

Abstract not available

• Speaker: William Baker (Dark)
• Friday 02 May 2025, 11:30-12:30
• Venue: Ryle Seminar Room, KICC + online.
• Series: Galaxies Discussion Group; organiser: Sandro Tacchella.

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arXiv:2501.18338v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This letter reports 12 novel spectroscopic detections of warm circumstellar dust orbiting polluted white dwarfs using JWST MIRI. The disks span two orders of magnitude in fractional infrared brightness and more than double the number of white dwarf dust spectra available for mineralogical study. Among the highlights are: i) the two most subtle infrared excesses yet detected, ii) the strongest silicate emission features known for any debris disk orbiting any main-sequence or white dwarf star, iii) one disk with a thermal continuum but no silicate emission, and iv) three sources with likely spectral signatures of silica glass. The near ubiquity of solid-state emission requires small dust grains that are optically thin, and thus must be replenished on year-to-decade timescales by ongoing collisions. The disk exhibiting a featureless continuum can only be fit by dust temperatures in excess of 2000K, implying highly refractory material comprised of large particles, or non-silicate mineral species. If confirmed, the glassy silica orbiting three stars could be indicative of high-temperature processes and subsequent rapid cooling, such as occur in high-velocity impacts or vulcanism. These detections have been enabled by the unprecedented sensitivity of MIRI LRS spectroscopy and highlight the capability and potential for further observations in future cycles.

arXiv:2501.17948v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The circumstellar liquid-water habitable zone guides our search for potentially inhabited exoplanets, but remains observationally untested. We show that the inner edge of the habitable zone can now be mapped among exoplanets using their lack of surface water, which, unlike the presence of water, can be unambiguously revealed by atmospheric sulfur species. Using coupled climate-chemistry modelling we find that the observability of sulfur-gases on exoplanets depends critically on the ultraviolet (UV) flux of their host star, a property with wide variation: most M-dwarfs have a low UV flux and thereby allow the detection of sulfur-gases as a tracer of dry planetary surfaces; however, the UV flux of Trappist-1 may be too high for sulfur to disambiguate uninhabitable from habitable surfaces on any of its planets. We generalise this result to show how a population-level search for sulfur-chemistry on M-dwarf planets can be used to empirically define the Habitable Zone in the near-future.

arXiv:2501.18498v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The metal content of a galaxy's interstellar medium reflects the interplay between different evolutionary processes such as feedback from massive stars and the accretion of gas from the intergalactic medium. Despite the expected abundance of low-luminosity galaxies, the low-mass and low-metallicity regime remains relatively understudied. Since the properties of their interstellar medium resemble those of early galaxies, identifying such objects in the Local Universe is crucial to understand the early stages of galaxy evolution. We used the DR3 catalog of the Southern Photometric Local Universe Survey (S-PLUS) to select low-metallicity dwarf galaxy candidates based on color selection criteria typical of metal-poor, star-forming, low-mass systems. The final sample contains approximately 50 candidates. Spectral energy distribution fitting of the 12 S-PLUS bands reveals that $\sim$ 90\% of the candidates are best fit by models with very low stellar metallicities. We obtained long-slit observations with the Gemini Multi-Object Spectrograph to follow-up a pilot sample and confirm whether these galaxies have low metallicities. We find oxygen abundances in the range $7.35<$ 12 + log(O/H) $< 7.93$ (5\% to 17\% of the solar value), confirming their metal-poor nature. Most targets are outliers in the mass-metallicity relation, i.e. they display a low metal content relative to their observed stellar masses. In some cases, perturbed optical morphologies might give evidence of dwarf-dwarf interactions or mergers. These results suggest that the low oxygen abundances may be associated with an external event causing the accretion of metal-poor gas, which dilutes the oxygen abundance in these systems.

arXiv:2501.18498v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The metal content of a galaxy's interstellar medium reflects the interplay between different evolutionary processes such as feedback from massive stars and the accretion of gas from the intergalactic medium. Despite the expected abundance of low-luminosity galaxies, the low-mass and low-metallicity regime remains relatively understudied. Since the properties of their interstellar medium resemble those of early galaxies, identifying such objects in the Local Universe is crucial to understand the early stages of galaxy evolution. We used the DR3 catalog of the Southern Photometric Local Universe Survey (S-PLUS) to select low-metallicity dwarf galaxy candidates based on color selection criteria typical of metal-poor, star-forming, low-mass systems. The final sample contains approximately 50 candidates. Spectral energy distribution fitting of the 12 S-PLUS bands reveals that $\sim$ 90\% of the candidates are best fit by models with very low stellar metallicities. We obtained long-slit observations with the Gemini Multi-Object Spectrograph to follow-up a pilot sample and confirm whether these galaxies have low metallicities. We find oxygen abundances in the range $7.35<$ 12 + log(O/H) $< 7.93$ (5\% to 17\% of the solar value), confirming their metal-poor nature. Most targets are outliers in the mass-metallicity relation, i.e. they display a low metal content relative to their observed stellar masses. In some cases, perturbed optical morphologies might give evidence of dwarf-dwarf interactions or mergers. These results suggest that the low oxygen abundances may be associated with an external event causing the accretion of metal-poor gas, which dilutes the oxygen abundance in these systems.

arXiv:2501.18498v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The metal content of a galaxy's interstellar medium reflects the interplay between different evolutionary processes such as feedback from massive stars and the accretion of gas from the intergalactic medium. Despite the expected abundance of low-luminosity galaxies, the low-mass and low-metallicity regime remains relatively understudied. Since the properties of their interstellar medium resemble those of early galaxies, identifying such objects in the Local Universe is crucial to understand the early stages of galaxy evolution. We used the DR3 catalog of the Southern Photometric Local Universe Survey (S-PLUS) to select low-metallicity dwarf galaxy candidates based on color selection criteria typical of metal-poor, star-forming, low-mass systems. The final sample contains approximately 50 candidates. Spectral energy distribution fitting of the 12 S-PLUS bands reveals that $\sim$ 90\% of the candidates are best fit by models with very low stellar metallicities. We obtained long-slit observations with the Gemini Multi-Object Spectrograph to follow-up a pilot sample and confirm whether these galaxies have low metallicities. We find oxygen abundances in the range $7.35<$ 12 + log(O/H) $< 7.93$ (5\% to 17\% of the solar value), confirming their metal-poor nature. Most targets are outliers in the mass-metallicity relation, i.e. they display a low metal content relative to their observed stellar masses. In some cases, perturbed optical morphologies might give evidence of dwarf-dwarf interactions or mergers. These results suggest that the low oxygen abundances may be associated with an external event causing the accretion of metal-poor gas, which dilutes the oxygen abundance in these systems.

arXiv:2407.21626v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We present results from MeerKAT single-dish HI intensity maps, the final observations to be performed in L-band in the MeerKAT Large Area Synoptic Survey (MeerKLASS) campaign. The observations represent the deepest single-dish HI intensity maps to date, produced from 41 repeated scans over $236\,{\rm deg}^2$, providing 62 hours of observational data for each of the 64 dishes before flagging. By introducing an iterative self-calibration process, the estimated thermal noise of the reconstructed maps is limited to ${\sim}\,1.21\,$mK ($1.2\,\times$ the theoretical noise level). This thermal noise will be sub-dominant relative to the HI fluctuations on large scales ($k\,{\lesssim}\,0.15\,h\,\text{Mpc}^{-1}$), which demands upgrades to power spectrum analysis techniques, particularly for covariance estimation. In this work, we present the improved MeerKLASS analysis pipeline, validating it on both a suite of mock simulations and a small sample of overlapping spectroscopic galaxies from the Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA) survey. Despite only overlapping with ${\sim}\,25\%$ of the MeerKLASS deep field, and a conservative approach to covariance estimation, we still obtain a ${>}\,4\,\sigma$ detection of the cross-power spectrum between the intensity maps and the 2269 galaxies at the narrow redshift range $0.39\,{<}\,z\,{<}\,0.46$. We briefly discuss the HI auto-power spectrum from this data, the detection of which will be the focus of follow-up work. For the first time with MeerKAT single-dish intensity maps, we also present evidence of HI emission from stacking the maps onto the positions of the GAMA galaxies.

arXiv:2501.16983v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: While cosmological simulations of galaxy formation have reached maturity, able to reproduce many fundamental galaxy and halo properties, no consensus has yet been reached on the impact of `baryonic feedback' on the non-linear matter power spectrum. This severely limits the precision of (and potentially biases) small-scale cosmological constraints obtained from weak lensing and galaxy surveys. Recent observational evidence indicates that `baryonic feedback' may be more extreme than commonly assumed in current cosmological hydrodynamical simulations. In this paper, we therefore explore a range of empirical AGN feedback models, within the FABLE simulation suite, with different parameterizations as a function of cosmic time, host halo properties, and/or spatial location where feedback energy is thermalized. We demonstrate that an AGN radio-mode feedback acting in a larger population of black holes, with jets thermalizing at relatively large cluster-centric distances, as exemplified by our XFABLE model, is in good agreement with the latest weak lensing + kSZ constraints across all k-scales. Furthermore, XFABLE maintains good agreement with the galaxy stellar mass function, gas fraction measurements, and all key galaxy group and cluster properties, including scaling relations and ICM radial profiles. Our work highlights the pressing need to model black hole accretion and feedback physics with a greater level of realism, including relativistic, magnetized jets in full cosmological simulations. Finally, we discuss how a range of complementary observational probes in the near future will enable us to constrain AGN feedback models, and therefore reduce `baryonic feedback' modelling uncertainty for the upcoming era of large cosmological surveys.

arXiv:2501.16424v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We report follow-up observations of three poorly studied AM CVn-type binaries: CRTS CSS150211 J091017-200813, NSV1440, and SDSSJ183131.63+420220.2. Analysing time-series photometry obtained with a range of ground-based facilities as well as with TESS, we determine the superhump period of CRTSJ0910-2008 as P_sh=29.700+-0.004min and the orbital period of NSV1440 as Porb=36.56+-0.03min. We also confirm a photometric period of P=23.026+-0.097min in SDSSJ1831+4202, which is most likely the superhump period. We also report the first optical spectroscopy of CRTSJ0910-2008 and NSV1440 which unambiguously confirms both as AM CVn systems. We briefly discuss the distribution in the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram of the currently known sample of 63 AM CVn stars with known periods and Gaia data.

Jack Szostak: Topic TBA

In person

• Speaker: Jack Szostak (Chemistry, University of Chicago)
• Thursday 20 March 2025, 11:00-12:00
• Venue: Battcock, Room F17.
• Series: LCLU Coffee Meetings; organiser: Paul B. Rimmer.

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Catriona McDonald - Topic TBA

In person

• Speaker: Catriona McDonald (Cambridge IoA)
• Thursday 03 April 2025, 11:00-12:00
• Venue: Battcock, Room F17.
• Series: LCLU Coffee Meetings; organiser: Paul B. Rimmer.

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Title to be confirmed

Abstract not available

• Speaker: Alkistis Pourtsidou (University of Edinburgh)
• Monday 10 March 2025, 13:00-14:00
• Venue: CMS, Pav. B, CTC Common Room (B1.19) [Potter Room].
• Series: Cosmology Lunch; organiser: Louis Legrand.

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arXiv:2501.16311v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The Time Domain Extragalactic Survey (TiDES) conducted on the 4-metre Multi-Object Spectroscopic Telescope (4MOST) will perform spectroscopic follow-up of extragalactic transients discovered in the era of the NSF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory. TiDES will conduct a 5-year survey, covering ${>}14\,000\,\mathrm{square\, degrees}$, and use around 250 000 fibre hours to address three main science goals: (i) spectroscopic observations of ${>}30 000$ live transients, (ii) comprehensive follow-up of ${>}200 000$ host galaxies to obtain redshift measurements, and (iii) repeat spectroscopic observations of Active Galactic Nuclei to enable reverberation mapping studies. The live spectra from TiDES will be used to reveal the diversity and astrophysics of both normal and exotic supernovae across the luminosity-timescale plane. The extensive host-galaxy redshift campaign will allow exploitation of the larger sample of supernovae and improve photometric classification, providing the largest-ever sample of spec-confirmed type Ia supernovae, capable of a sub-2 per cent measurement of the equation-of-state of dark energy. Finally, the TiDES reverberation mapping experiment of 700--1\,000 AGN will complement the SN Ia sample and extend the Hubble diagram to $z\sim2.5$