Recent IoA Publications

arXiv:2610.03447v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We present a fast and numerically stable framework for conducting posterior predictive distribution (PPD) tests of internal consistency in correlated cosmological probes. Our method, developed as a validation check for the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 6 combined analysis of weak lensing and galaxy clustering, employs a Gaussian-mixture model to efficiently approximate the high-dimensional PPD and introduces a scalar consistency metric, $\Delta_{\rm PPD}$, defined as the fraction of the PPD at lower probability density than the observed data. This method avoids challenges related to calibration and numerical stability that impacted PPD methods previously used in DES Year 3. After demonstrating performance with a toy model, we confirm that when applied to DES Year 3 measurements, $\Delta_{\rm PPD}$ identifies the same inter-probe tensions as published, calibrated PPD results while requiring only minutes per test. We further validate the method on several noise realizations of simulated DES Y6 analyses, demonstrating that $\Delta_{\rm PPD}$ responds coherently to injected inconsistency, while highlighting two effects which can complicate the interpretation of PPD tests for increasingly complex models. First, internal tensions that can be absorbed as shifts in nuisance parameters become more difficult to detect. Second, poorly constrained directions in parameter space can induce projection effects in PPDs for disjoint sets of observables, producing reports of tension even for consistent data. We conclude that $\Delta_{\rm PPD}$ provides a practical PPD-based diagnostic for multiprobe unblinding, to be interpreted with care alongside other validation checks. This framework has already played an important role in DES analyses and is well suited for application to forthcoming Stage-IV surveys such as LSST, Euclid, and Roman, where fast, robust internal consistency tests will be essential.

arXiv:2610.02606v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We present the largest study to date of star cluster mass and age distributions in nearby galaxies. The analysis is based on a uniformly selected catalog of over 15,000 (36,000) human (machine) classified compact clusters across 38 spiral galaxies in the PHANGS-HST survey, with improved photometric SED age dating that mitigates key degeneracies with reddening and metallicity. The galaxies span a factor of ~100 in star formation rate (SFR) and in their surface density of star formation and molecular gas (Sigma_SFR, Sigma_H2), and cover a broad range of morphologies. We find that cluster mass functions are well described by a power law, dN/dM ~ M^beta, with beta=-1.9 +/- 0.2, and that this shape is remarkably similar across all galaxies in our sample and eight composite groups of galaxies with similar SFRs, with no significant dependence on SFR, Sigma_SFR}, or Sigma_H2. Cluster age distributions decline steeply and can be described by dN/dt ~ t^gamma with gamma=-0.83 +/- 0.24, again with little dependence on host-galaxy properties or cluster mass. The independence of the mass and age distributions implies a separable joint distribution, g(M,t) ~ M^beta t^gamma, and suggests that cluster populations in spiral disks are dominated by strong, mass-independent dissolution over their first ~Gyr. These results establish a benchmark for interpreting cluster demographics across diverse galactic environments and provide context for studies of young cluster populations at high redshift.

arXiv:2610.02315v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Different theories of dark matter predict different populations and morphologies of galactic subhaloes below about $10^8M_{\odot}$. The planned angular resolution and optical stability of the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) should enable it to detect subtle subhalo perturbations in strongly lensed galaxy images. We simulate 2000-second exposures with its High Resolution Imager (HRI) under the fiducial Exploratory Analytic Case 1 (EAC1) design, assuming known source structure and omitting lens-galaxy light. Pre-selecting the top 50 of 965 lenses (5.2%) using only arc signal-to-noise and relative gradient power lowers the median mass threshold for 10% aperture coverage roughly tenfold relative to the full ensemble. The top 12 (1.2%) reach a median of $6.6\times10^7M_{\odot}$ for the same coverage. At their most sensitive positions, the top 50 and top 12 reach median thresholds of $3\times10^7M_{\odot}$ and $1.5\times10^7M_{\odot}$, respectively. Non-linear fits support the Fisher forecasts at the tested masses and positions. For these 12 lenses, increasing the physical wavefront error from 35 to 65 nm RMS raises the median thresholds by only 0.1 dex when the point spread function (PSF) is modelled correctly. Deliberately mismodelling the 35-nm reference PSF removes detectable positions, although false detections remain rare. Under our illustrative retention criteria, loss of sensitive area sets a median tolerated wavefront mismatch of 5 nm RMS (range 2--10 nm). Selective HWO follow-up of lenses discovered by Euclid or Roman could therefore transform our understanding of the nature of dark matter, provided that the PSF is characterized accurately enough to preserve this sensitivity.

arXiv:2503.11621v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: With about 1.5 billion galaxies expected to be observed, the very large number of objects in the Euclid photometric survey will allow for precise studies of galaxy clustering from a single survey, over a large range of redshifts $0.2 < z < 2.5$. In this work, we use photometric redshifts to extract the baryon acoustic oscillation signal (BAO) from the Flagship galaxy mock catalogue with a tomographic approach to constrain the evolution of the Universe and infer its cosmological parameters. We measured the two-point angular correlation function in 13 redshift bins. A template-fitting approach was applied to the measurement to extract the shift of the BAO peak through the transverse Alcock-Paczynski parameter $\alpha$. A joint analysis of all redshift bins was performed to constrain $\alpha$ at the effective redshift $z_\mathrm{eff}=0.77$ with MCMC and profile likelihood techniques. We also extracted one $\alpha_i$ parameter per redshift bin to quantify its evolution as a function of time. From these 13 $\alpha_i$, which are directly proportional to the ratio $D_\mathrm{A}/r_\mathrm{d}$, we constrain the product $h\,r_\mathrm{d}$ and $\Omega_\mathrm{m}$. From the joint analysis, we constrain $D_\mathrm{A}/r_\mathrm{d}=10.764^{+0.0839}_{-0.0849}$, a three-fold improvement over current constraints from the Dark Energy Survey. As expected, the constraining power in the analysis of each redshift bin is lower, with an uncertainty ranging from $\pm\,1.23$ to $\pm\,0.289$. From these results, we constrain $\Omega_\mathrm{m}=0.296^{+0.074}_{-0.059}$ and $h\,r_\mathrm{d}=99.35^{+4.29}_{-4.55}\,\mathrm{Mpc}$. We quantify the influence of analysis choices such as the template, scale cuts, redshift bins, and systematic effects such as redshift-space distortions, over our constraints, both at the level of the extracted $\alpha_i$ parameters and at the level of cosmological inference.

arXiv:2609.36355v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We present novel empirical constraints on average optical depths and gas density profiles from combining kinematic Sunyaev Zel'dovich effect (kSZ) measurements and nonlinear peculiar velocities, reconstructed using machine learning, for massive halos traced by DESI DR2 luminous red galaxies (LRG). The pairwise kSZ is measured using two ACT DR6 cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature maps (ILC and 150 GHz maps) for seven luminosity-selected LRG samples. We find consistent results between the two maps and significant detections across the samples. We reconstruct LRG line-of-sight peculiar velocities in two cosmic epochs, centered on $z=$ 0.55 and 0.8, using a simulation-trained Transformer machine learning model to extend beyond the linear approximation. Average optical depths are inferred by comparing the kSZ pairwise correlation to the measured pairwise velocity correlation from the reconstructed velocity field and, separately, from a theoretical prediction using the best fit Planck cosmology, with the highest significance reaching SNR = 14.2 and 15.1 respectively. We also obtain velocity-weighted AP-filtered kSZ-stacked cluster density profiles, which show evidence of extended ionized gas around massive LRG groups and no strong redshift evolution within current measurement uncertainties. These results demonstrate the power of combining spectroscopic galaxy and CMB data, and employing machine learning methods, to probe diffuse baryons and coherent large-scale velocity fields. They open up new avenues to leverage upcoming galaxy survey data from Euclid, Roman and Rubin LSST, in tandem with multi-frequency CMB/sub-mm data from CCAT and Simons Observatory.

arXiv:2609.36013v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Stars enhanced in heavy neutron capture elements like europium (Eu) provide a window into the rarest and most exotic nucleosynthetic events. Most Eu-enhanced stars discovered thus far are found among metal-poor populations, with $\mathrm{[Fe/H]}<-1.0$. Here, we report the discovery of $17$ vetted Eu-enhanced stars ($\mathrm{[Eu/Fe]}>0.7$) in the Milky Way disk with metallicities in the range $-0.87<\mathrm{[Fe/H]}<-0.21$ identified from among $74\,717$ stars in the GALAH survey. 14 of these stars additionally have $\mathrm{[Ba/Eu]}<0$, marking enhancement from the rapid neutron capture ($r$-) process and making these r-II stars. Included in their number is a star with a remarkably high $\mathrm{[Eu/H]}=1.01\pm0.09$ at $\mathrm{[Fe/H]}=-0.21$. In addition to Eu, all 17 stars show enhancements in other neutron capture elements, especially in Nd, while otherwise appearing chemically consistent with typical disk stars, particularly in their $\alpha$-element abundances. Two of the Eu-enhanced stars exhibit indications of binarity with strong enrichment in Ba and Y, marking potential signatures of the slow or intermediate neutron capture processes. This sample of 17 Eu-enhanced stars, which span both the high- and low-$\alpha$ disks, are valuable tracers of neutron capture processes, including the $r$-process, at high metallicities. Although we use criteria for Eu-enhanced stars typically applied to the halo to enable comparison to literature studies of $r$-process enhanced stars, we propose a new, metallicity-dependent selection for Eu enhancement that is better-suited to the regime of the Galactic disk.

arXiv:2604.17981v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We present a new method for emulating the halo mass function (HMF) and other distribution functions in large effective volumes, down to low halo masses, whilst simultaneously modifying large ranges of parameters, for a fraction of the cost of traditional periodic cosmological simulations. We demonstrate the method by selecting small regions, $V \sim (50 \,h^{-1}{\rm Mpc})^3$, with a range of overdensities from the Quijote suite, consisting of tens of thousands of $(1 \,h^{-1}{\rm Gpc})^3$ $N$-body simulation volumes run with varying $\Lambda$CDM parameters. We train a differentiable emulator, conditioned on the overdensity of the region and these global parameters, to reproduce the halo mass function in these regions. We then successfully recover the global distribution of halo masses of the entire box by integrating over the overdensity distribution. Our approach uses just $\sim\,$0.026% of the original simulation volume, and suggests that suites of targeted `zoom' simulations, extracted from low resolution parent volumes, can be used to emulate large volume simulations at a fraction of the computational cost, whilst simultaneously pushing the dynamic range to much lower masses than can be achieved in periodic simulations. We discuss emulation of other key dark matter and baryonic distribution functions, as well as higher order statistics, with implications for the interpretation of upcoming wide field surveys on observatories such as Euclid, Roman and Rubin.

arXiv:2609.31838v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We combine the largest survey of star clusters in nearby galaxies to-date, PHANGS-HST, with maps of molecular gas maps from PHANGS-ALMA to constrain the efficiency of cluster formation and the typical timescales over which clusters become dis-associated from their natal molecular gas. We analyse 29,233 clusters in 36 galaxies using CO maps at 150 pc resolution. For each star cluster with stellar mass $\geq 10^{3.5}$ M$_\odot$, we measure the radial profiles of CO(2-1) integrated intensity and obtain local background-subtracted CO intensity, $I_{\rm CO}^{\rm bkgsub}$, at cluster centre. We group the clusters by age and mass to quantify the dependence of $I_{\rm CO}^{\rm bkgsub}$ and corresponding molecular gas mass, $M_{\rm mol}$, on these cluster properties. To account for the cluster mass ($M_{\rm SC}$) dependence, we also calculate the normalised mass ratio of $(M_{\rm mol}/M_{\rm SC})$. We find that CO intensity varies systematically with cluster age and mass. Clusters that are spatially associated with H$\alpha$ emission exhibit the highest $I_{\rm CO}^{\rm bkgsub}$ of 7.4 K km s$^{-1}$, corresponding to a $M_{\rm mol}/M_{\rm SC}$ ratio of 82 and implying a cluster formation efficiency ($\epsilon_{\rm obs}$) of $\sim 1.2\%$. Young clusters without associated H$\alpha$ emission show lower and age-dependent $I_{\rm CO}^{\rm bkgsub}$ and $M_{\rm mol}/M_{\rm SC}$, decreasing from 1.3 K km s$^{-1}$ and 15 for clusters with age 1-3 Myr, to a level $\approx$ 0 for clusters older than 9--10 Myr. Clusters older than 10 Myr show no statistical excess of CO intensity. We use the clusters with H$\alpha$ association as initial conditions to model the impact of cluster drift and demonstrate that this is unlikely to drive the observed cluster-gas spatial disassociation on short timescales of 4-6 Myr. Instead, early stellar feedback seems likely to be the main driver.

arXiv:2604.11542v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: High-mass X-ray binaries are one of the primary drivers of the 21-cm signal from Cosmic Dawn and Reionization, playing a leading role in the thermal history of the intergalactic medium. In traditional semi-numerical simulations, a deterministic scaling relation between the total X-ray luminosity of high-mass X-ray binaries, $L_{\rm X}$, and star formation rate (SFR) is usually adopted. However, this assumption is inaccurate for high-redshift low-SFR regions hosting few sources. The spatial variation in the number and luminosity of these sources is expected to enhance fluctuations in the Cosmic Dawn 21-cm signal. Here we quantify this effect by introducing a stochastic $L_{\rm X}$ model sampled from a power-law X-ray luminosity function. Implementing this in \texttt{21cmSPACE}, a large-scale simulation framework of Cosmic Dawn and Reionization, and adopting a soft X-ray spectral energy distribution ($\beta=1.5$, $E_{\rm min}=0.1\,\mathrm{keV}$) that leads to a relatively strong stochastic signature, we find that the stochasticity leads to enhanced fluctuations in X-ray heating rate fields, and affects the 21-cm power spectrum on small scales ($k>0.3~ \mathrm{cMpc^{-1}}$). The impact of stochasticity on the global 21-cm signal and on the large-scale power spectrum is found to be negligible. Our results suggest these effects will remain undetected by the upcoming Square Kilometer Array. However, large-scale lunar-based experiments may be sensitive to the signatures of stochastic X-ray heating at $z\sim 25$. Quantifying these corrections is a vital step toward robust 21-cm modeling and ensuring that future precision data interpretation is free from astrophysical biases.

arXiv:2603.22475v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We provide a description of the code implementation and structure of Cosmology Likelihood for Observables in Euclid (CLOE), developed by members of the Euclid Consortium. CLOE is a modular Python code for computing the theoretical predictions of cosmological observables and evaluating them against state-of-the-art data from galaxy surveys such as Euclid in a unified likelihood. This primarily includes the core observables of weak gravitational lensing, photometric galaxy clustering, galaxy-galaxy lensing, and spectroscopic galaxy clustering, but also extended probes such as the clusters of galaxies and cross-correlations of galaxy positions and shapes with the cosmic microwave background. While CLOE has been developed to serve as the unified framework for the parameter inferences in Euclid, it has general capabilities that can serve the broader cosmological community. It is different from other comparable cosmological tools in that it is written entirely in Python, performs the full likelihood calculation, and includes both photometric and spectroscopic observables. We focus on the primary probes of Euclid and describe the overall code structure, rigorous code development practices, extensive documentation, unique features, speed optimization, and future development plans. CLOE is publicly available at https://github.com/cloe-org/cloe.

arXiv:2606.18338v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The search for life beyond Earth will depend on detecting faint signatures in the atmospheres of potentially habitable exoplanets. Interpreting those signatures requires understanding the host planet's climate: the same molecule may signal life on one planet and abiotic chemistry on another. Global climate models (GCMs) provide this understanding, but individual runs can require up to millions of core-hours and substantial domain expert time. Machine-learning emulators could remove this bottleneck, but progress has been limited by the absence of a curated, multi-model exoclimate dataset. We introduce ThousandWorlds, an ML-ready benchmark for exoclimate emulation and for the broader regime of low-data, multi-simulator, parameter-to-field regression. The dataset contains approximately 1,700 simulations from five GCMs, mapping eight planet parameters to 3D atmospheric fields including temperature, humidity, winds, clouds, and radiation. Three nested subsets define progressively harder challenges: single-simulator regression, multi-simulator regression with complete observations, and multi-simulator regression with structured missingness. We propose two evaluation protocols: one for ranking methods, and one that measures performance relative to the disagreement between GCMs themselves. We evaluate ten baselines spanning simple methods, trees, deep learning, and Gaussian processes. GP-based methods perform best, suggesting that ThousandWorlds exposes a regime where off-the-shelf deep learning does not yet succeed. Data: https://doi.org/10.57967/hf/8695. Code: https://github.com/edstevenson/ThousandWorlds.

arXiv:2609.30230v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A large fraction of stars interact with a close companion during their lifetime, in which the transfer of mass and angular momentum shapes their evolution and final fate. Standard rotationally limited accretion models predict that accretors reach critical rotation after gaining only a small fraction of their mass, severely suppressing further accretion. This is in tension with observations of post-interaction systems that require substantial mass gain. We introduce a disc-mediated angular momentum transport prescription for mass-transfer onto stellar companions. This is based on a novel perturbative, analytic star-disc boundary model that allows for continued mass inflow as the accretor approaches critical rotation. Furthermore, the model reproduces previous numerical results in which perturbations to super-critical rotation result in negative torques exerted by the disc, extracting excess angular momentum while allowing continued mass inflow. We implement this mechanism in detailed binary evolution calculations with differential rotation using MESA, and compute grids spanning primary mass, orbital period, and mass ratio. Whereas rotationally limited models predict $\beta_{\rm eff}\lesssim 0.1$, the disc model yields sustained mass inflow near critical rotation, with effective mass-transfer efficiencies of $\beta_{\rm eff}\sim 0.4$-$1$ across much of the parameter space. The resulting accretor properties are broadly consistent with observed post-interaction sdOB+Be binaries. Disc-mediated angular momentum transport may therefore represent a key missing ingredient in standard binary evolution models, with important implications for rapidly rotating stars and compact-object progenitors.

arXiv:2609.26877v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Changes in the slope of the radial surface brightness profiles of disc galaxies, or disc breaks, encode valuable information about the processes driving disc formation and growth. Until now, due to the resolution and depth required, statistical studies of break types have been limited mostly to the local Universe. We aim to study the structural properties and redshift evolution of disc breaks in a large and statistically representative sample of galaxies out to redshift z=1 using the superb depth and resolution of Euclid. We develop an automatic pipeline to extract and analyse surface brightness profiles of 8748 disc galaxies selected from the Euclid Q1 dataset. The pipeline includes advanced masking, surface brightness profile extraction, integrated photometry and structural parameter measurements, and piecewise modelling to classify galaxies into Types I (pure exponential), Type II (down-bending), Type III (up-bending), and composite break (e.g., Type~II+III, Type~II+II, etc) profiles. We quantify structural parameters such as scale lengths, break radii, and surface brightness levels, and analyse their distributions and redshift dependence. Our automatic method produces reliable masks and deep surface brightness profiles, and classifies galaxy profiles with an estimated accuracy of 70%. Using a subsample of 4385 galaxies with reliable classifications, we find that the most common profiles are Types II, II+III, I, and III. We find substantial evolution in the fraction of disc breaks with time. Type II profiles dominate at low redshift (50%), while Types III and II+III profiles increase in frequency with lookback time, reaching 30% each at z~1. Our study provides the first statistically robust measurement of the evolution of disc break types over 5 Gyr. The observed trends support a scenario in which secular processes replace environmental influences as galaxies mature.

arXiv:2609.25224v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We report spectroscopic observations of a remarkable QSO, J115724.80-000455.56 at $z=0.287$ from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey. This QSO exhibits variability in its hydrogen Balmer absorption over a time interval of 10 months in the observed frame between 2021 and 2022. The observed Balmer absorption can be decomposed into two components with distinct kinematics: a non-varying, "stationary" component and a varying, "dynamic" component. Both absorbers have gas column densities of $N_{\rm H}\sim 10^{22}~{\rm cm^{-2}}$ and likely have densities of $n_{\rm H}\gtrsim 10^{8}~{\rm cm^{-3}}$. We inferred small effective physical sizes of $\lesssim 10^{-3}$ pc for the absorbers, which, together with the time variability, suggests that the absorption occurs in the broad-line region (BLR). The reshifted centroid velocities of both absorbers imply an inflow, where the inferred mass inflow rate is comparable to the single-epoch mass accretion rate of this QSO. The 2022 epoch of this QSO further reveals a 10% change in the column density over 2 months, indicating the gas inflow might be continuous. We also obtained new X-ray observations using the $\it Einstein~Probe$, which reveals an X-ray-to-bolometric luminosity ratio significantly below the general AGN population. The X-ray weakness is consistent with strong gas obscuration with $N_{\rm H}= 4.0^{+ 1.6}_{- 1.5}\times10^{23}~{\rm cm^{-2}}$. The substantially higher gas obscuration seen in the X-rays compared to the optical possibly indicates a warm absorber inside the BLR or merger-driven enhancement of the galactic scale obscuration consistent with optical imaging. This QSO might thus represent an active feeding phase after a recent gas-rich merger.

arXiv:2609.23091v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Super-Earth exoplanets are among the most abundant planets known, yet their bulk densities leave the interior state degenerate. The static structure models used to interpret them, and the interior retrievals built on them, typically describe the cold, solidified end state of an evolution that begins hot and molten. During this magma ocean stage the interior, the outgassed atmosphere, and the surface co-evolve and set the long-term climate and geophysics of super-Earths. We develop and validate a fully coupled model for the structural and thermal evolution of super-Earth exoplanets within the PROTEUS framework, including new and upgraded models of the interior structure, mantle energetics, and volatile outgassing. In volatile-poor super-Earths of 1 to 10 Earth masses, the silicate interior contracts by about 10 % of its molten radius through cooling and crystallisation, nearly independent of planet mass and driven by the thinning silicate shell alone. The solidified radius is set by planetary mass and core fraction, insensitive to the host star, irradiation, and initial thermal state. In contrast, volatile-rich super-Earths at and above about 5 Earth masses may not solidify: their thick outgassed atmospheres throttle the surface heat loss until the interior settles into a deep magma ocean, keeping the planet inflated and limiting the contraction to about half its volatile-poor value. Mantle contraction alone thus shapes the low-mass exoplanet transit population, motivating joint interpretation of atmospheric and geophysical signatures in upcoming exoplanet surveys.

arXiv:2603.00241v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Dwarf galaxies are ideal laboratories to probe the interplay between galaxy formation and the growth of black holes (BHs) in the early Universe. Mounting observational evidence reveals the presence of BHs in low-mass galaxies across cosmic time, with $\textit{JWST}$ uncovering a likely population of $\textit{overmassive}$ BHs at $2 \lesssim z \lesssim 11$. Simulations struggle to reproduce this high-redshift regime, motivating revisions to models of BH accretion and feedback from active galactic nuclei (AGN). To address this, we present high-resolution cosmological zoom-in simulations of a dwarf galaxy based on FABLE physics, introducing novel sink-based BH accretion models and relaxing the fiducial assumption of strong supernova feedback. BHs accrete more efficiently in the sink-based runs compared to the `traditional' Bondi-based counterparts, with AGN feedback leading to early, rapid quenching maintained by fast, hot and metal-enriched outflows. These outflows pollute the outer circumgalactic medium, yielding flat metallicity gradients down to $z=0$. We further assess the performance of two widely used virial estimators and find significant departures from the true dynamical mass, especially during the high-redshift dwarf assembly. Since our galaxy is dark-matter-dominated at all times and radii, BH growth, tied to the baryon cycle, shows no clear correlation with global dynamical properties. Efficient AGN feedback is produced by overmassive BHs relative to extrapolated local $M_\bullet - M_\star$ relations, raising the possibility that dormant, overmassive BHs in local quenched dwarfs and those probed by $\textit{JWST}$ may reflect a common mode of early and rapid BH growth in low-mass galaxies.

arXiv:2609.22466v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Baryon feedback is a leading source of systematic uncertainty for cosmology from weak lensing, but measurements of the gas distribution around galaxies have largely relied on parametric profile models or simulation-calibrated frameworks. We present model independent measurements of the radial gas fraction profile around galaxies, combining galaxy-galaxy lensing and kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (kSZ) effect. We introduce a method that applies the same radial $\Delta\Sigma$ aperture filter to both the galaxy-galaxy lensing shear field and the velocity-weighted kSZ temperature maps; their ratio directly yields $\Delta\Sigma$ filtered gas fraction $f_{\rm gas}(R)$, the ratio of ionized gas to total matter as a function of projected radius. We apply this approach to DESI DR2 Bright Galaxy Survey (BGS, $\bar{z}\approx0.26$) and Luminous Red Galaxy (LRG, $0.4

arXiv:2604.12868v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: While the connection between massive stars and supernova explosions is well established observationally, the link between massive stars and black hole formation remains elusive. Some massive stars may collapse directly to black holes without a successful supernova, and may therefore be observed as disappearing stars. We investigate the expected photometric properties of such black hole progenitors by combining detailed single and binary stellar evolution models with physically motivated prescriptions linking pre-collapse core structure to explosion or direct collapse outcome, together with stellar atmosphere calculations, producing synthetic photometry across standard ultraviolet to near-infrared filters. Weighting by an initial mass function and empirical binary distributions, we predict both the observable distribution of progenitor brightness and colour and the rate of direct-collapse events, which we estimate to be about 0.4 per century for a galaxy forming stars at 1 Msun/yr. We find that black hole progenitors are predominantly hot and blue at the pre-collapse stage, with many in Wolf-Rayet phases and luminous in the ultraviolet, while only a minority are red supergiants. Consequently, searches that focus primarily on red supergiants are likely to miss a substantial fraction of direct-collapse events. Monitoring campaigns that include ultraviolet-sensitive observations of nearby star-forming galaxies therefore provide a promising route to detecting disappearing massive stars, offering a direct observational probe of black hole formation. Our results provide predictions to interpret such surveys and constrain the channels that lead to black hole formation.

arXiv:2609.20810v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We investigate the dwarf spheroidal (dSph) satellites and stellar halo of M31 using near-infrared imaging from the Wide-Field Camera on the UKIRT 3.8 m telescope. Our homogeneous analysis covers the stellar extents of 12 dSphs, as well as their surrounding halo field populations. We identify carbon-rich (C) and oxygen-rich (M) thermally-pulsing AGB stars (TP-AGBs) using colour-magnitude and colour-colour diagrams, which also allows for effective contaminant rejection. TP-AGB stars are detected in eight of the 12 dSphs, indicating small intermediate-age populations in a substantial fraction of the sample; they are also found in considerable numbers throughout most of M31's stellar halo. By combining 316 new detections with a revised classification of objects previously reported in the literature, we increase the TP-AGB candidate population in the dSphs from 82 to 359. We use the resulting dSph and halo AGB samples to compute C/M ratios and infer metallicities in the dSphs and adjacent halo fields with non-zero AGB counts. A clear metallicity gradient is observed in the M31 stellar halo out to ~150 kpc, consistent with that found using other tracers. Using literature star formation histories from main-sequence turn-off photometry, we find a tight correlation between the number of C stars in the dSphs and the stellar mass formed in the last 0.5--3 Gyr. This study underscores the promise of AGB stars as quantitative tracers of intermediate-age star formation, particularly in intrinsically faint systems, and provides a catalogue of candidate TP-AGB stars for follow-up.

arXiv:2605.06799v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Astrophysical variabilities of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), such as their link with their birth environment, are now one of the leading sources of systematic uncertainties on the measurement of the dark energy equation-of-state parameter $w$. Population studies of SNe Ia, using large samples, give precious insights into these variabilities. We analyse a volume-limited subsample of 932 SNe from the ZTF SN Ia DR2 with BayeSN, a hierarchical Bayesian model for SN Ia SEDs. We investigate the distributions of SN Ia light curve parameters and their link with SN environment. Using a new training of BayeSN released in a companion paper, we find a smaller scatter of Hubble residuals compared to SALT. We then investigate the magnitude step, which accounts for the correlation between SN Ia standardised absolute magnitude and host environments. We find a posteriori steps of $0.103\pm0.010$ mag (a $10.1\sigma$ difference from 0) when using global stellar mass as an environmental proxy, and $0.086\pm0.010$ mag ($8.3\sigma$) when using local colour, in accordance with steps computed using SALT light curve fits. This confirms that the large step seen in the ZTF SN Ia DR2 data was not due to the SALT fit or the associated standardisation process. We then investigate the origin of the step, using a BayeSN model which accounts for both an intrinsic magnitude step and differing dust properties with the SN environment. We find a $0.103\pm0.018$ mag ($5.6\sigma$) step in global mass and a $0.085\pm0.019$ mag ($4.5\sigma$) step in local colour. The means of the $R_V$ distribution are similar between different host environments, with $\Delta\mathbb{E}(R_V)\leq0.2$ across all environment proxies, with significances ranging from $0.6\sigma$ to $1.2\sigma$. This is a strong signal of the existence of an intrinsic dependence of SN Ia absolute magnitude on environment.